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孙小津: Large Price Movements in Housing Markets
发布日期:2019-05-21  字号:   【打印

报告时间:2019年5月23日(星期四)14:00-15:30

报告地点:翡翠湖校区科教楼B座1008室

  :孙小津 助理教授

工作单位美国德克萨斯大学艾尔帕索分校

举办单位:经济学院

报告人简介

孙小津,美国德克萨斯大学艾尔帕索分校经济学助理教授,研究方向包括实证宏观经济学,房屋市场经济学和应用计量经济学。研究成果发表在Journal of Money、Credit and Banking、Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics、Economics Letters、Empirical Economics等期刊。

报告简介

In the lecture, the presenter studies examines large price run-ups with potential subsequent crashes and large price declines with potential subsequent rebounds in state-level and metropolitan-area-level housing markets in the U.S. over the past 40 years. We find that a sharper run-up in house prices predicts a higher probability of a crash, but a sharper decline does not necessarily predict a higher probability of a rebound. Changes in the effective interest rate in the local market can predict housing returns following large price run-ups, while it is harder to use the same factors to predict returns following large price declines. Such characteristics are robust to different thresholds of price movements.


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